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Coronavirus: How many new Covid-19 infections are there in my area and across England?




University of Cambridge statisticians have estimated the number of new coronavirus infections arising each day in England.

The latest results of their modelling, published on Wednesday (July 1), suggests about 3,000 people a day are still being infected. There is 95% confidence that the figure lies between 1,500 and 5,000.

An illustration of the Covid-19 virus. Image: CDC
An illustration of the Covid-19 virus. Image: CDC

The team, in the MRC Biostatistics Unit Covid-19 Working Group, predict that the number of deaths each day “is likely to fall to between 35 and 70 by the middle of July”.

Crucially, the researchers estimate that it is “very likely” that the R number, which records how many people a person with Covid-19 passes it on to, is below the crucial figure of 1, above which the virus can grow out of control.

The East of England, which covers Hertfordshire and Essex, is estimated to have an R number of 0.78, the researchers say.

But with a local lockdown in place in Leicester, where cases have risen significantly, they note that the the Midlands has the highest probability (15%) of an R number above 1, although their central estimate for the region is 0.89.

The unit has also published data breaking down more than five million infections across England into regions, showing that the East of England has had more than half a million.

In terms of daily infections, the Midlands currently has by far the highest, with 1,030. The East of England has an estimated 181 daily.

The information from the Cambridge unit is fed directly to the SAGE sub-group advising the Government, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza sub-group on Modelling (SPI-M) and to regional Public Health England (PHE) teams.

Meanwhile, 36 areas have been highlighted as having week-on-week increases in coronavirus cases by Public Health England. The closest ones to Bishop's Stortford are Suffolk and the London boroughs of Enfield, Redbridge and Haringey:

  • Barking and Dagenham
  • Brent
  • Derbyshire
  • Doncaster
  • Ealing
  • Enfield
  • Gateshead
  • Gloucestershire
  • Hammersmith and Fulham
  • Haringey
  • Harrow
  • Havering
  • Hounslow
  • Isle of Wight
  • Kensington and Chelsea
  • Leicester
  • Medway
  • Milton Keynes
  • Plymouth
  • Portsmouth
  • Redbridge
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • Richmond upon Thames
  • Sandwell
  • Slough
  • Suffolk
  • Sunderland
  • Tower Hamlets
  • Wakefield
  • Walsall
  • Wandsworth
  • Westminster
  • Wigan
  • Wiltshire
  • Windsor and Maidenhead
  • York

The number of Covid-19 deaths by area, to May 31, can be tracked using this interactive map.

Nationally, the number of lab-confirmed cases of Covid-19 as of 4pm on June 30 was 312,654, with 689 confirmed on the day.

The official number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK stood at 43,730, although it is known that the actual death toll will be higher due to those who had not been tested, or not had Covid-19 named on their death certificate. A further 155 deaths were confirmed in the UK in the latest figures, although these daily numbers fluctuate according to when deaths are recorded.

The cumulative number of confirmed cases, and cases per 100,000, can be tracked week on week by local authority area using these interactive maps.

Regionally, the East of England has fared better than most, as these graphs demonstrate.

Its total figures closely match those of Yorkshire and Humberside, while the figures on cases per 100,000 people show only the East Midlands and South West have fared better.


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